The Renton Wa Realtor Blog !: October 2008

The Obvious Truth About King County Housing Price Predictions!!!

Well everyone is wondering, talking, considering, opinionating about housing prices. (and stock market prices and on and on.) Well here is the Obvious Truth About King County Housing Prices Predictions.

Predicting the future has always been an inexact science but that doesn't stop the experts from tryingAs the stock market dips then jumps then dips again, it's important to remember that markets are unpredictable and nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.

Unfortunately, that doesn't stop the analysts from trying.

An obvious example comes from May of this year. As the price of oil crossed $120 per barrel on its way to an all-time high of $147, a Goldman Sachs analyst was quoted as saying that $200 oil was "likely".

It seemed like a logical conclusion at the time.

Today, though, just five months after the prediction, the analyst's "likely" scenario looks downright laughable. Oil is off by more than 40 percent since that day. And there's hundreds of examples just like this, all around us. Yes the expert was way wrong!!!

Every day, economic experts and analysts are on television, (commonly laughed at as "the TALKING HEADS,") telling us what's going to happen in the future:

  • They tell us when housing prices will reach a bottom
  • They tell us when stock markets will rebound for good
  • They tell us what the economy will do over the next 12 months

But none of them operate with the proverbial crystal ball -- it's all on "gut".

Another example is from yesterday's CNNMoney.com. In the wake of the government's banking response, a mortgage analyst predicts 7 percent interest rates over the next six months This would represent a 1.5 percent from the recent lows.

The rate prediction may be accurate, or it may not. We won't know for another six months. But what we know today, though, is that mortgage rates are all over the place -- just like the stock market. One day up, another day down. And nobody knows what they'll do tomorrow.

Predicting the future has always been an inexact science but that won't stop the experts from trying. And the experts are wrong as often as anybody else. The best advice from the Gary McNinch Team (we are great at helping you buy and sell Renton houses and condos, not experts at inexact sciences) is to let us connect you with one of our veteran lenders or financial planners. The have experience and knowledge and insight and you can bet on a solid answer for your particular situation. Good information about current rate and loan type options, precise current rates and figures will allow you to make the informed decision that is best for you and your family. And up and down the stock markets go!!!

6 comments • Gary McNinch Realtor Renton WA Real Estate • October 17 2008 12:12PM

Good Faith Estimates -- Knowing the basics - A must read !!!

 

Attention Renton and Kent home buyers, great information on the start of the home loan process.  A Good Faith Estimate is a must when you apply for a home loan from Jeff Belonger who is a FHA loan specialist.  

 

Via Jeff Belonger -- The FHA Expert.com -- FHA Loans -- FHA mortgages -- Mortgages :

shopping for mortgages

Good Faith Estimates -- Such an extremely vital part when shopping for a mortgage. Yes, rate is some what important, but seems to be the primary focus so many times. Not to sound rude or out of character, but a monkey can quote a rate. And I am dead serious about this.

For any of you in the process of buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage, this is a must read.

I have been in the mortgage industry for over 16 years and this subject has to be my biggest pet peeve out there. I have written about this a few times, which you can read below.



Basic information to look for when shopping for a good faith estimate.........
  1. Only compare the lenders fees, which are located on lines 800 to 820.
  2. Do not compare good faith estimates and the truth-in-lending disclosure (TIL) that shows the APR. It's very easy to manipulate the APR. Lenders can leave out certain fees.
  3. Beware of what property taxes the loan officer uses for properties that you are looking at. And make sure that they escrow the correct amount on your good faith estimate, which is on lines 1003 & 1004.
  4. Here is my biggest pet peeve !!!!!  You should be given a good faith estimate once your loan officer qualifies you. When your loan officer pulls your credit, takes down your income information, and is able to come back to you with a purchase price, with rate and payment, you are now qualified. If this is the case, they should be able to give you a good faith estimate (GFE) right there and then. Okay, so you called them up. Most of us have e-mail and that loan officer should be able to e-mail you a copy. It doesn't take no longer than 24 hours, no matter how busy they are. Don't allow them to use this as an excuse. And if it takes them 2 days to get you a GFE?  Don't even use their services, no matter what. Not unless they tell you when you will be getting one. Things do happen. But the key thing to remember is if you are qualified to buy a property or to refinance, then you should get one within a half hour. People, your information is already in the system. That is the only way to qualify you. Then next step is just to e-mail it to you. That SIMPLE....
  5. One last major point.....  as Lenn Harley mentioned in a comment, you need to obtain all the good faith estimates on the same day. Just one day could make a huge difference. Especially in taoday's market, with rates changing drastically within 24 to 48 hours at times.  You just don't want to shop yourself out of the market.


2 quick stories.......
  --  I have a client right now that is looking to buy a home in Maryland. They first went to Countrywide and was pre-qualified for a home of $250,000. I asked them what payment that they didn't want to go over and they said $2,000 a month. I also asked them what the taxes were on the properties that they were looking at in that range. They said $3,400 to $4,200, so I bumped it up $100 extra per year.
They found me online from a few of my blogs. I work in New Jersey and don't know their area well, but I know what questions to ask, as you can see above. The other lender?  She is using taxes of $2,400 a year. I was even shown the GFE. OUCH. You know what, these buyers qualify very easily. But in my worst case scenario, the payment difference is going to be by $150 a month. And you know what, most of the taxes are about $4,100/month. And this lender is local....  There are a few points in this story. A very good loan officer doesn't have to be local. And a very good loan officer needs to ask the right questions, besides knowing how to qualify.

  --  2nd story....  I met a couple two days ago who settled on their home a year ago. It was even a referral from a friend. This loan officer had them bring $2,500 more to settlement, the day of settlement. This is a totally different pet peeve and different subject, which I will write about later. But word to the wise, this is called bait and switch. If your loan officer changes your rate and or costs at the very end, typically the day before or the day of, don't sign the papers if there is a huge difference. Don't let anyone force you to sign, even a lawyer. The only thing that you could lose at that moment is your deposit. But let me tell you something, if you have the right documents, you can take them to court and win in most courses. This is if they won't come back down to what was originally offered. Why can I say this? If anything is ever changed prior to settlement, the lender is suppose to get you to sign a new good faith estimate.

Overall.... choose your mortgage professional wisely and not just based on a great good faith estimate.

FYI.......   If a loan officer doesn't volunteer a good faith estimate right when they qualify you for a mortgage... or it takes longer than 24 hours.... then the loan officer in most cases does't wamt you to see their good faith estimate. It's sad to say, but usually so true. Don't let anyone tell you differently. They don't want you to compare apples to apples. And in all honesty, why should you give them the benefit of the doubt or even consideration still... no matter how nice they sound. It could cost you money in the long run.




- FHA Loans  - Conventional Loans - VA Loans -

Experience & Knowledge at its BEST !!!

 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________

For more information on FHA loans, please go to this link. The FHA Expert

For more information on how you can obtain your dream home, please click here : Mortgage Financing Options

For important mortgage insight to watch for, please read : Consumers need to be aware of these Red Flags !!!!!


Copyright © 2008 by Jeff Belonger

5 comments • Gary McNinch Realtor Renton WA Real Estate • October 14 2008 01:16AM

Corporate Consolidations and National Business Mergers! HUMOR! The Latest on the US Economy.

Since the stock market has taken a fall (major correction, I heard it called the other day), here are the ways that some businesses are changing the way they do business. And this info was sent to me in a crazy email by my mother-in-law.

For all of you with any money left, be aware of the next expected mergers so that you can get in on the ground floor and make some BIG BUCKS!

Watch for these consolidations in 2009

1. Hale Business Systems, Mary Kay Cosmetics, Fuller Brush, and W. R. Grace Co. Will merge and become:

Hale Mary Fuller Grace

2. PolygramRecords, Warner Bros., and ZestaCrackers join forces and become:

Poly Warner Cracker

3. 3M will merge with Goodyear and become: MMMGood

4. Zippo Manufacturing, AudiMotors, Dofasco, and Dakota Mining will merge and become: ZipAudiDoDa

5. Fairchild Electronics and Honeywell Computers will become:

Fairwell Honeychild

6. Grey Poupon and Docker Pants are expected to become:

PouponPants

7. Knotts Berry Farm and the National Organization of Women will become:

Knott NOW!

And finally...

8. Victoria's Secret and Smith/Wesson will merge under the new name:

Since everyone is concerned about our national economy, I just thought we could lighten it up a little bit. Courtesy of the laugh out loud department of the Gary McNinch Team, Renton Realtor, Keller Williams Realty Renton.

17 comments • Gary McNinch Realtor Renton WA Real Estate • October 09 2008 03:36PM

Out Of Stocks and Into Real Estate?

Great Thoughts for Renton Home Buyers whether you are looking on Talbot Hill, Fairwood or Newcastle.  Where should you invest your money?  This original post was from Mike Jones, veteran mortgage lender in Tucson. 

Via Mike Jones:

History of the DJIAThis is an observation.  It's not financial advice.

I received a loan application from my website (www.mikeintucson.com) yesterday afternoon, and when I called the woman who applied for the purchase loan, she said this:  "I'm getting out of the market, and I'm buying a rental property in the University [U of A] district."

That's the first blip on my radar of a turn in buyer psychology.

I began to comb the internet for data to see what factors push people out of the stock market, and where they go with their money when they leave.

The most frequent answer is that money leaving the stock market flows into bonds or commodities like gold.  My investor seems to believe that those traditional safe havens are overbought, and that real estate is oversold. 

Bookmark this for your "Encouraging News" folder.

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender.
Mike Jones (Tucson Mortgage Company, LLC): Loan Officer in Tucson, Pima County, Arizona
Think of me as your Tucson expert.

photo courtesy Fox Business

6 comments • Gary McNinch Realtor Renton WA Real Estate • October 07 2008 09:41PM

What a MESS, No Where to POOP!! So How Do You Sell Or Buy this South King County Home??!??

How do you Sell or buy this South King County Home and how did it get so messed up????

Checking the MLS this morning for new listings I came upon a photo of a nice, newly built, 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath, home, almost 2500 sq feet, large flag lot in a rural setting. Photo looked great, price was just over $360K which was kinda low for that home. SO I READ THE MARKETING REMARKS!!!

Marketing Remarks: (ok READ THIS CLOSELY) This property is a DISTRESSED HOME, subject to bank approval of a short sale. FDIC will make decision since bank has been seized by FDIC. The property has no certificate of occupancy since it has no method of sewage disposal. Sewer is approx. 9 miles from property and the property does not perc. Neither Seller, nor agents, nor brokers or nor Bank make any representations or warranties whatsoever regarding the subject property. House must be shown during the day light hours-power is shut off.

How did this happen??? No sewer, no septic tank possible, ... what are the other alternatives (my son the Realtor says "outhouse").

A search of the tax records show this house (property) has changed hands twice since 2006. Now the BIG CLUE ... first sale was Long Beach Mortgage (they're out of business right??), then second sale shows a loan was INDYMAC BANK who gave out nearly $487,000. WHAT???

How did they all miss the fact that the house could not be occupied. Didn't the loan officers, banks, appraiser, agents, ...... someone see this. MAYBE THIS IS THE REASON OUR FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE IN SUCH A MESS??

(Fortunately the listing agent is not the Gary McNinch Team) There has to be more to the story and the question is how to get this sold (OR NOT). Good luck. So, does anyone have any ideas of what to do next.

This post is not to lay blame or criticize any one person and is solely my opinion, but if you have any good ideas, I would be glad to pass them on to the listing agent. I really hope there is more to the story, because this looks like several people could lose a lot of money.

5 comments • Gary McNinch Realtor Renton WA Real Estate • October 02 2008 04:08PM